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The Consequences of Amnesty


The Catastrophic Multiplier Effect

The problem with U.S. immigration policy is not that it is broken, although there is an urgent need to change some misguided policies like birthright citizenship and extended family preferences for the relatives of recent immigrants. The main problem is that we have stopped enforcing our immigration policies, not only at the border, but even more importantly and urgently, at the workplace, medical clinics, and welfare offices, even the Social Security office. We do not enforce our immigration policies primarily because our immigration system and the politics of immigration have become corrupt. Our political and legislative leadership has become too much beholden to or intimidated by special interests that want unlimited numbers of cheap foreign labor for big corporate political donors and increased ethnic immigration to stack the electoral deck for left-liberal progressives. Thus we have a deliberately loose immigration system—almost open-door immigration now—to serve special interests rather than the best interests of the American people, American workers, and American taxpayers. Consequently, respect for American Constitutional principles, American law, and American culture are continually undermined. Public safety and national security are being hindered and foolishly disregarded.

Furthermore, President Obama is now planning to bring 85,000 to 100,000 unvetted predominantly Sunni Muslim “refugees” to the U.S per year. in 2015 and 2016 as part of the State Department Refugee Settlement Program. This is a severe and foolish public safety and national security risk being imposed upon scores of American communities with little citizen recourse. Conservative activists in South Carolina are having to fight the U.S. State Department, Governor Nikki Haley, and many local political politicians to stop implementation of the Governor’s Refugee Resettlement Plan targeting Spartanburg, Greenville, Charleston, Richland, Lexington, and Dorchester counties.

Immigration policy is extremely important to our economy and future prosperity, in fact, also to our freedoms, our way of life, and our very survival as a free nation. Voters should know a lot about immigration policy, but they don’t. They should know a lot about where candidates stand on immigration policies, but they don’t. Why is that? As Senator Jeff Sessions (R, AL) and many others have repeatedly pointed out, the Democratic Party establishment has a vested interest in welcoming new voters who will consistently vote 65 to 80 percent Democrat. These new voters consistently favor the Democrat Party because the Democrat brand has come to mean generous government healthcare and welfare programs, even though U.S. fiscal and monetary integrity has already been pushed beyond prudent limits. The Republican establishment has a vested interest in nearly $500 billion per year in cheap labor profits reaped by their big donors, although it suppresses the income of American wage earners by close to $450 billion per year (updated from George Borjas figures). In addition, according to the Heritage Foundation, the fiscal costs of illegal immigration amount to approximately $14,387 per unlawful immigrant household per year.

Of all the misguided immigration policies being proposed by politicians and 2016 Presidential candidates, amnesty would be the most costly and damaging. Many uninformed voters and politicians have no idea of the horrendous fiscal and economic costs of amnesty. They believe it is just a choice between law and mercy for the immigrants, giving no thought to the burden on taxpayers, American workers, their families, and the social, cultural and political changes that such upheaval would bring. According to the Heritage Foundation, the annual fiscal cost of amnestied illegal households would rise from $14,387 to near $28,000, because more benefits would be paid out, but very little tax revenue would be gained because of their low income tax brackets. But that is by no means the upper limit of the costs.

The Catastrophic Multiplier Effect of Amnesty

Ronald Reagan signed the 1986 amnesty bill with reservations. He was misled to believe that there would be less than one million amnesties. Thanks to widespread document fraud and intentionally lax bureaucrat vetting, the number turned out to be about 2.75 million. Then there were six supplemental amnesties for another 3.0 million. Then millions of additional illegal immigrants came, first the relatives, then less closely related family and friends, and still millions more who calculated that they should come because U.S. immigration law was no more than a temporary inconvenience. Many are coming now who think they have a right to come. At the end of his second term, Reagan told his Attorney General Ed Meese that his most regretted mistake was signing the 1986 amnesty.

Rule Number One. Amnesties do not stop illegal immigration. They multiply it and all the costs that go with it.

Looking at the 1986 amnesty and the wave of illegal immigration that followed and still continues, a rough rule of multiplication has been devised:

Rule Number Two. For every amnesty given, two to three additional illegal immigrants will come within 10 to 20 years.

Rule Number Three. Large additional numbers of illegals will almost immediately result in pressure for even more amnesties.

Rule Number Four. Once an illegal immigrant has been made legal, there will also be almost immediate pressure to give them citizenship as well.

Rule Number Five. Amnesties are for all practical purposes irreversible without substantial police or military force.

Several organizations concerned with immigration policy, including Pew Research, agree that there are approximately 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States. Rule number two indicates that we could expect an amnesty to attract another 22 to 33 million illegal immigrants in 10 to 20 years. In 2006, Bear Stearns analysts calculated that the number of illegal immigrants was really about 20 million. Some long-time immigration observers, like Ann Coulter, believe that the number here now may be as high as 30 million. Using the Bear Stearns figure of 20 million, we can expect amnesty to bring 40 to 60 million more illegal immigrants. However, I believe that the cost of amnesty plus another 22 to 33 million illegal immigrants will surely bankrupt not only Social Security and Medicare but the whole country and make it far less attractive to further waves of illegal immigrants.

Calculate using any combination you want: $28,000 per year for newly amnestied immigrants and $14,387 per year for new illegal immigrants. In addition, to the dollar figures, an amnesty would likely result in a fifth column of foreign voters, who would make it impossible to deny further amnesties, benefits and voting rights for non-citizens, or citizenship after a minimum time. Citizenship would cease to be meaningful.

Incidentally, at least one 2016 Presidential candidate has said, he would make illegal immigrants guest-workers. However, that is still amnesty and would not change the costs. Moreover, the ink would not be dry on it before the Democrats, the media, and the usual liberal Republicans would be making a bleeding heart case for their citizenship.

And what will be the misery brought upon American workers and their families with all this new labor competition? How will this work out for taxpayers? What additional public safety and national security problems would we face?

The Center for Immigration Studies has just released another academic study indicating what everybody but establishment Republicans already know. Amnesty and continued cheap labor immigration spell doom for the Republican Party and every conservative issue: right-to-life, family values, gun-rights, fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, religious liberty, freedom of press and speech, national security, everything.

Candidates who are for amnesty often deny it, using some inconsequential exception to camouflage their position. There is probably more political deception on immigration than any other issue. Yet the fate of the nation depends upon voter knowledge of immigration issues and discernment of where candidates stand. Conservatives must win two battles to recover our liberty: The Republican Primaries first and then the General Election. So help us God!

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